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U.S. House · All Florida races

Florida District 26

Likely R
Compare
Nicole Locklin
Democratic
8 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Mario Díaz-Balart
Republican · incumbent
92 in 100

Mario Díaz-Balart wins in 92 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Mario Díaz-Balart +8.0.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Díaz-Balart +8.1; 80 in 100 fall between Díaz-Balart +15.3 and Díaz-Balart +0.7.

Díaz-Balart +30Díaz-Balart +20Díaz-Balart +10Locklin +10Locklin +20Locklin +30Tie

The candidates

Mario Díaz-BalartIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1961)

Mario Rafael Díaz-Balart y Caballero is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 26th congressional district. Wikipedia

Official website ↗
Nicole Locklin
Democratic
Raised
$561K
Cash on hand
$132K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.
Deborah Ann Meidinger Hosey
Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Nicole Locklin against Mario Díaz-Balart yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Locklin +4 over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Locklin 8, Díaz-Balart 92.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+7.0roughly 14 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyDíaz-Balart +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateDíaz-Balart +8.0±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastDíaz-Balart +8.0±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Nicole Locklin 8 in 100 (Likely R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Nicole Locklin 8 in 100 (Likely R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Nicole Locklin 8 in 100 (Likely R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #59 of 421