Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 92 in 100 that it changes hands.
Amish Shah wins in 92 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Amish Shah +3.0 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Amish Shah +8.0. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Shah +5.5; 80 in 100 fall between Shah +0.5 and Shah +10.4.
Thomas James Feely is an American former professional football player and politician. He started his playing career as a placekicker with the Florida Bobcats in the Arena Football League (AFL) as a free agent in 1999 before playing for several National Football League (NFL) teams. Wikipedia
Amish Shah is an American politician and physician who served as a member of the Arizona House of Representatives for District 5 from 2023 to 2024. He previously served as the Representative for District 24 from 2019 to 2023. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Shah +3.0 across 1 poll testing Amish Shah against Jay Feely.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FirstStrategic | Oct 1–Oct 1 | 400 LV | Shah +2.8 | Shah +3.0 | 0.33 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Shah 92, Feely 8.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Shah +3.0 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+1.0 | roughly 2 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Shah +8.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Shah +5.5 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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