Jared Moskowitz wins in 92 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jared Moskowitz +7.9.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Moskowitz +7.9; 80 in 100 fall between Moskowitz +0.6 and Moskowitz +15.1.
Jared Evan Moskowitz is an American politician and attorney serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 23rd congressional district since 2023. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Jared Moskowitz against Scott Singer yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Moskowitz 92, Singer 8.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+3.0 | roughly 6 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Moskowitz +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Moskowitz +7.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Moskowitz +7.9 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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