Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 91 in 100 that it changes hands.
Rebecca Cooke wins in 91 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Rebecca Cooke +6.6 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Rebecca Cooke +3.8. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Cooke +5.2; 80 in 100 fall between Cooke +0.3 and Cooke +10.2.
Rebecca Cooke is an American nonprofit founder and former political consultant who is the Democratic nominee for Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 election. She unsuccessfully ran to represent the district in 2022 and 2024. Wikipedia
Derrick Francis Van Orden is an American politician, actor, and retired United States Navy SEAL who has served as the U.S. representative for Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district since 2023. He is a member of the Republican Party. Wikipedia
Official website ↗Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Cooke +6.6 across 1 poll testing Rebecca Cooke against Derrick Van Orden.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM3 ResearchD · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Jun 20–Jun 25 | 535 LV | Cooke +4.0 | Cooke +6.6 | 0.06 |
| Public Policy PollingA− · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Oct 14–Oct 15 | 609 LV | Cooke +2.0 | Cooke +7.3 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Cooke 91, Orden 9.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Cooke +6.6 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+3.0 | roughly 6 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Cooke +3.8 | In 2024 they ran 7.6 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Orden +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Cooke +3.8 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Cooke +5.2 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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