John McGuire wins in 91 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has John McGuire +4.8 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to John McGuire +5.6. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin McGuire +5.2; 80 in 100 fall between McGuire +10.1 and McGuire +0.2.
John Joseph McGuire III is an American politician, businessman, and former United States Navy SEAL serving as the U.S. representative for Virginia's 5th congressional district since 2025. Wikipedia
Thomas Stuart Price Perriello is an American attorney, diplomat, and politician. He previously served in numerous positions at the United States State Department, including special representative for the Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review, special envoy for the African Great Lakes, and special envoy for Sudan. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at McGuire +4.8 across 1 poll testing Tom Perriello against John McGuire.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and GovernmentA+ | Sep 23–Sep 28 | 600 LV | McGuire +5.0 | McGuire +4.8 | 0.70 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Perriello 9, McGuire 91.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | McGuire +4.8 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+6.0 | roughly 12 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | McGuire +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | McGuire +5.5 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | McGuire +5.1 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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