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U.S. House · open seat · All New York races

New York District 21

Likely R
Compare
Blake Gendebien
Democratic
9 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Anthony Constantino
Republican
91 in 100

Anthony Constantino wins in 91 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Blake Gendebien +0.5 across 3 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Anthony Constantino +11.1. Polls get 53% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Constantino +5.0; 80 in 100 fall between Constantino +9.9 and Constantino +0.1.

Constantino +30Constantino +20Constantino +10Gendebien +10Gendebien +20Gendebien +30Tie

The candidates

Anthony Constantino
Republican
Raised
$14.5M
Cash on hand
$4.1M
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.
Blake Gendebien
Democratic
Raised
$7.2M
Cash on hand
$470K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

The polling average stands at Gendebien +0.5 across 3 polls testing Blake Gendebien against Anthony Constantino.

Constantino +2.3 since Aug 8, 2026
Constantino +20Constantino +10EvenGendebien +10Gendebien +20Aug 9Aug 16Aug 23Aug 30Sep 6Sep 13Sep 20Sep 27Oct 4Oct 11Oct 18

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

PollsterDatesSampleResultAdjustedWeight
Siena UniversityA
for WAMC-FM, Albany Times Union, WPTZ
Sep 30–Oct 6496 LVGendebien +4.0Gendebien +2.80.94
J.L. PartnersC+Aug 15–Aug 17500 LVConstantino +13.0Constantino +12.10.37
SurveyUSAA−
for WNYT
Aug 4–Aug 8800 AGendebien +4.0Gendebien +4.70.58

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Gendebien +8 over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Gendebien 10, Constantino 91.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 53% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)Gendebien +0.5±7.5 sampling range; effective 2.6 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+10.0roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbencynoneopen seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimateConstantino +11.1±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastConstantino +5.0±3.9 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Blake Gendebien 54 in 100 (Toss-up)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Blake Gendebien 9 in 100 (Likely R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Blake Gendebien 9 in 100 (Likely R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent retiring

House races, closest first · this is #54 of 421