Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 90 in 100 that it changes hands.
JoAnna Mendoza wins in 90 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to JoAnna Mendoza +7.5.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Mendoza +7.4; 80 in 100 fall between Mendoza +0.1 and Mendoza +14.7.
Juan Ciscomani III is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Arizona's 6th congressional district since 2023. A Republican, he was a senior adviser to former Governor Doug Ducey and vice chair of the Arizona-Mexico Commission. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at — across 0 polls testing JoAnna Mendoza against Juan Ciscomani.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington, Petts & AssociatesB− · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Jun 8–Jun 11 | 500 LV | Mendoza +2.0 | Mendoza +4.6 | 0.00 |
| Ragnar Research PartnersB+ · REP sponsor for Conservatives for America | Mar 12–Mar 14 | 400 LV | Mendoza +3.0 | Mendoza +6.6 | 0.00 |
| Public Policy PollingA− · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Oct 14–Oct 15 | 581 LV | Mendoza +1.0 | Mendoza +6.3 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Mendoza 90, Ciscomani 10.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | Even | roughly 0 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Mendoza +1.1 | In 2024 they ran 2.2 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Ciscomani +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Mendoza +7.5 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Mendoza +7.5 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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