Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 90 in 100 that it changes hands.
Christina Bohannan wins in 90 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Christina Bohannan +5.9 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Christina Bohannan +4.1. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Bohannan +5.0; 80 in 100 fall between Bohannan +0.0 and Bohannan +10.0.
Christina Bohannan is an American politician and law professor who served from 2021 to 2023 as the Iowa state representative for the 85th House district. A member of the Democratic Party, she was elected in 2020, succeeding Vicki Lensing. Wikipedia
Mariannette Jane Miller-Meeks is an American physician and politician who has served as a U.S. representative from Iowa since 2021. Her district, numbered the 2nd from 2021 to 2023 and the 1st since 2023, includes most of Iowa's southeastern quadrant, including Davenport, Bettendorf, Burlington, and Iowa City. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
The polling average stands at Bohannan +5.9 across 1 poll testing Christina Bohannan against Mariannette Miller-Meeks.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group for The Independent Center | Jul 13–Jul 16 | 705 LV | Bohannan +5.0 | Bohannan +5.9 | 0.28 |
| Public Policy PollingA− · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Jun 18–Jun 19 | 555 A | Bohannan +4.0 | Bohannan +9.3 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Bohannan 90, Miller-Meeks 10.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Bohannan +5.9 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+4.0 | roughly 8 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Bohannan +6.1 | In 2024 they ran 12.1 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Miller-Meeks +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Bohannan +4.1 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Bohannan +5.0 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
House races, closest first · this is #52 of 421