Marie Gluesenkamp Perez wins in 90 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has John Braun +0.5 across 2 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Marie Gluesenkamp Perez +11.8. Polls get 58% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Perez +4.6; 80 in 100 fall between Braun +0.1 and Perez +9.2.
John Eric Braun is an American politician and former Navy captain from Washington. A Republican, Braun is in the Washington State Senate, representing the 20th legislative district. He serves as the Minority Leader of the Washington State Senate. Wikipedia
Kristina Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is an American politician serving as the United States representative for Washington's 3rd congressional district since 2023. A member of the Democratic Party, she is a co-chair of the Blue Dog Coalition. Wikipedia
Official website ↗Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Braun +0.5 across 2 polls testing Marie Gluesenkamp Perez against John Braun.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHM ResearchA− for Oregon Public Broadcasting | Sep 17–Sep 27 | 543 LV | Braun +1.0 | Braun +1.0 | 0.84 |
| Emerson CollegeA− · DEM sponsor for Northwest Progressive Institute | Jul 8–Jul 10 | 500 LV | Braun +1.0 | Perez +1.9 | 0.17 |
| Voter Sciences · REP sponsor for Washington State Republican Party | Aug 1–Aug 1 | — RV | Braun +6.3 | Braun +0.9 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Perez 90, Braun 10.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 59% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Braun +0.5 | ±5.8 sampling range; effective 1.4 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+2.0 | roughly 4 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Perez +2.5 | In 2024 they ran 5.0 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Perez +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Perez +11.8 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Perez +4.6 | ±3.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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