Skip to content
Bellwether
LatestAll updates →
U.S. House · open seat · All Florida races

Florida District 2

Likely R
Compare
Amanda Green
Democratic
10 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Austin Rogers
Republican
90 in 100

Austin Rogers wins in 90 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Austin Rogers +7.2.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Rogers +7.2; 80 in 100 fall between Rogers +14.5 and Green +0.1.

Rogers +30Rogers +20Rogers +10Green +10Green +20Green +30Tie

The candidates

Amanda Green
Democratic
Raised
$609K
Cash on hand
$71K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.
Austin Rogers
Republican
Raised
$1.3M
Cash on hand
$340K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Amanda Green against Austin Rogers yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Green +6 over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Green 10, Rogers 90.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+8.0roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbencynoneopen seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimateRogers +7.2±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastRogers +7.2±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Amanda Green 10 in 100 (Likely R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Amanda Green 10 in 100 (Likely R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Amanda Green 10 in 100 (Likely R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent retiring

House races, closest first · this is #50 of 421