Bob Brooks
Democratic
Raised$5.0M
Cash on hand$1.3M
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Pennsylvania races
Pennsylvania District 7
Likely DLikely flip · R → D
Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 90 in 100 that it changes hands.
Bob Brooks
Democratic
90 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Ryan Mackenzie
Republican · incumbent
10 in 100
Bob Brooks wins in 90 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Bob Brooks +5.0 across 2 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Bob Brooks +3.9. Polls get 59% of the weight 15 days out.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Brooks +4.6; 80 in 100 fall between Mackenzie +0.1 and Brooks +9.2.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Ryan MackenzieIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1982)
Ryan Edward Mackenzie is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district since 2025. A member of the Republican Party, he served in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives from 2012 to 2024. Wikipedia
Raised$5.2M
Cash on hand$2.2M
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
The polling average stands at Brooks +5.0 across 2 polls testing Bob Brooks against Ryan Mackenzie.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin & Marshall CollegeB− | Sep 9–Sep 20 | 357 RV | Brooks +5.0 | Brooks +4.9 | 0.45 |
| GBAO StrategiesB− · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Jun 29–Jul 2 | 550 LV | Brooks +4.0 | Brooks +5.3 | 0.12 |
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Brooks 90, Mackenzie 10.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 59% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Brooks +5.0 | ±5.6 sampling range; effective 1.5 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+1.0 | roughly 2 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Mackenzie +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Brooks +3.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Brooks +4.6 | ±3.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Bob Brooks 86 in 100 (Likely D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Bob Brooks 90 in 100 (Likely D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Bob Brooks 90 in 100 (Likely D)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #49 of 421