Democrats hold this seat today (the sitting member’s party; the lines are new); Republicans are favored: 89 in 100 that it changes hands.
Brent Taylor wins in 89 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Brent Taylor +1.9 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Brent Taylor +8.0. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Taylor +4.8; 80 in 100 fall between Taylor +9.8 and Pearson +0.2.
Justin Jamal Pearson is an American activist and politician. He is a member of the Tennessee House of Representatives representing the 86th district, covering parts of the city of Memphis. Wikipedia
Brent Louis Taylor is an American politician who has served since 2023 as a member of the Tennessee Senate representing District 31. A member of the Republican Party, he was first elected to the Tennessee Senate in 2022. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Taylor +1.9 across 1 poll testing Justin Pearson against Brent Taylor.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research AssociatesB+ · DEM sponsor for Tennessee Rise | Sep 1–Sep 3 | 400 LV | Taylor +4.0 | Taylor +1.9 | 0.22 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Pearson 11, Taylor 89.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Taylor +1.9 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+9.0 | roughly 18 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Taylor +8.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Taylor +4.8 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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