James Pericola
Democratic
Raised$197K
Cash on hand$22K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · open seat · All Florida races
Florida District 11
Likely R
James Pericola
Democratic
11 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Joe Strada
Republican
89 in 100
Joe Strada wins in 89 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Joe Strada +6.9.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Strada +6.9; 80 in 100 fall between Strada +14.1 and Pericola +0.3.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Joe Strada
Republican
Raised$5.4M
Cash on hand$820K
Through 2026-09-30
Ralph Groves
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested James Pericola against Joe Strada yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Pericola 11, Strada 89.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+7.0 | roughly 14 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Strada +6.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Strada +6.9 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: James Pericola 11 in 100 (Likely R)
- Polls + fundamentals: James Pericola 11 in 100 (Likely R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: James Pericola 11 in 100 (Likely R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent retiring
House races, closest first · this is #47 of 421