Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 88 in 100 that it changes hands.
William Lawrence wins in 88 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has William Lawrence +3.8 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to William Lawrence +5.1. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Lawrence +4.4; 80 in 100 fall between Barrett +0.5 and Lawrence +9.4.
Thomas More Barrett is an American politician, financial analyst, and former U.S. Army officer serving as the U.S. representative for Michigan's 7th congressional district since 2025. Wikipedia
William Lawrence is an American politician and activist who co-founded the Sunrise Movement, a climate action organization. He is the Democratic nominee for the U.S. House of Representatives in Michigan's 7th congressional district in 2026. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Lawrence +3.8 across 1 poll testing William Lawrence against Tom Barrett.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy GroupB+ · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Aug 11–Aug 13 | 500 LV | Lawrence +2.0 | Lawrence +3.8 | 0.22 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Lawrence 88, Barrett 12.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Lawrence +3.8 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | Even | roughly 0 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Barrett +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Lawrence +5.2 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Lawrence +4.4 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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