Aaron Bean wins in 87 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Aaron Bean +6.5.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Bean +6.5; 80 in 100 fall between Bean +13.9 and Holloway +0.8.
Aaron Paul Bean is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 4th congressional district since 2023. A Republican, Bean represented the 4th district in the Florida Senate, which included all of Nassau County, Clay County and parts of Duval County, from 2012 to 2022. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested LaShonda Holloway against Aaron Bean yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Holloway 13, Bean 87.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+5.0 | roughly 10 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Bean +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Bean +6.5 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Bean +6.5 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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