Andrew Garbarino wins in 95 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Andrew Garbarino +9.2.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Garbarino +9.3; 80 in 100 fall between Garbarino +16.5 and Garbarino +1.9.
Andrew Reed Garbarino is an American attorney and politician serving as the U.S. representative for New York's 2nd congressional district since 2021. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the New York State Assemblyman for the 7th district from 2013 to 2020. Wikipedia
Patrick Goodchild Halpin is an American politician who served as the fifth county executive of Suffolk County, New York, from 1988 to 1991. Halpin succeeded Jim Gaughran as Chair of the Suffolk County Water Authority on December 18, 2018. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Patrick Halpin against Andrew Garbarino yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Halpin 5, Garbarino 95.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+6.0 | roughly 12 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Garbarino +1.1 | In 2024 they ran 2.2 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Garbarino +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Garbarino +9.2 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Garbarino +9.2 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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