Rick Allen wins in 95 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Rick Allen +9.3.
Chance no one clears 50% and the race goes to a December runoff: 8 in 100 (rough estimate from the projected margin).
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Allen +9.2; 80 in 100 fall between Allen +16.5 and Allen +1.9.
Richard Wayne Allen is an American politician and businessman who has served as the Republican Party's U.S. representative for Georgia's 12th congressional district since 2015. Georgia's 12th district is in East Central Georgia and favors Republicans by seven points according to the 2025 Cook Partisan Voting Index. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Ceretta Smith against Rick Allen yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Smith 5, Allen 95.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+7.0 | roughly 14 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Allen +1.2 | In 2024 they ran 2.5 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Allen +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Allen +9.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Allen +9.3 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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