Charlie Hatcher wins in 96 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Charlie Hatcher +9.6.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Hatcher +9.6; 80 in 100 fall between Hatcher +16.9 and Hatcher +2.4.
Charles Woodbridge Hatcher is an American dairy farmer who is the Republican Party nominee for Tennessee's 5th congressional district in the 2026 general election. He defeated incumbent U.S. representative Andy Ogles in the Republican primary in an upset race. Wikipedia
The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Tennessee will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the nine U.S. representatives from the State of Tennessee, one from all nine of the state's congressional districts. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Chaz Molder against Charlie Hatcher yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Molder 4, Hatcher 96.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+10.0 | roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Hatcher +9.6 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Hatcher +9.6 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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