Victoria Spartz wins in 96 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Victoria Spartz +9.8.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Spartz +9.9; 80 in 100 fall between Spartz +17.1 and Spartz +2.6.
J. D. Ford is an American politician, currently a member of the Indiana Senate. Elected in the 2018 elections, he represents Senate District 29 as a member of the Democratic Party. Wikipedia
Victoria Spartz is a Ukrainian-born American politician and businesswoman who is the U.S. representative for Indiana's 5th congressional district. Spartz is a member of the Republican Party, but declined receiving any Republican committee assignments. She previously represented the 20th district in the Indiana Senate. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested J. D. Ford against Victoria Spartz yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Ford 4, Spartz 96.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+8.0 | roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Ford +0.7 | In 2024 they ran 1.4 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Spartz +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Spartz +9.8 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Spartz +9.8 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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