Don Davis wins in 96 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Don Davis +10.0 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Don Davis +3.5. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Davis +6.9; 80 in 100 fall between Davis +1.9 and Davis +11.8.
Laurie Moe Buckhout is an American politician and retired military officer. She served as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Cyber Policy in 2025. Buckhout is the Republican nominee in the 2026 election in North Carolina's 1st congressional district, having previously been their nominee for the same district in 2024. Wikipedia
Donald Gene Davis is an American politician and former Air Force officer serving as the United States representative for North Carolina's 1st congressional district since 2023. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Davis +10.1 across 1 poll testing Don Davis against Laurie Buckhout.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neighborhood Research and MediaB | Oct 1–Oct 6 | 303 LV | Davis +10.0 | Davis +10.0 | 0.36 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Davis 96, Buckhout 4.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Davis +10.1 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+5.0 | roughly 10 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Davis +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Davis +3.5 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Davis +6.9 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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