Republicans hold this seat today (the sitting member’s party; the lines are new); Democrats are favored: 96 in 100 that it changes hands.
Randy Villegas wins in 96 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Randy Villegas +5.8 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Randy Villegas +7.9. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Villegas +6.8; 80 in 100 fall between Villegas +1.8 and Villegas +11.7.
David Goncalves Valadao is an American politician and former dairy farmer serving as the U.S. representative for California's 22nd congressional district since 2023, previously representing California's 21st congressional district. His district comprises part of the San Joaquin Valley. Wikipedia
The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in California will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the 52 U.S. representatives from the state of California, one from each of the state's congressional districts. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Villegas +5.8 across 1 poll testing Randy Villegas against David Valadao.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin ResearchB · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Jun 15–Jun 21 | 800 LV | Villegas +4.0 | Villegas +5.8 | 0.14 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Villegas 96, Valadao 4.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Villegas +5.8 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+1.0 | roughly 2 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Valadao +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Villegas +7.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Villegas +6.8 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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