Eric Flores
Republican
Raised$3.8M
Cash on hand$285K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Texas races
Texas District 34
Solid D
Vicente Gonzalez
Democratic · incumbent
96 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Eric Flores
Republican
4 in 100
Vicente Gonzalez wins in 96 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Vicente Gonzalez +6.2 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Vicente Gonzalez +7.6. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Gonzalez +6.9; 80 in 100 fall between Gonzalez +1.9 and Gonzalez +11.9.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Vicente GonzalezIncumbent
Democratic · American politician (born 1967)
Vicente Gonzalez Jr. is an American lawyer and politician who has served as the U.S. representative for Texas's 34th congressional district since 2023. A member of the Democratic Party, he previously represented Texas's 15th congressional district from 2017 to 2023. Wikipedia
Raised$5.0M
Cash on hand$1.8M
Through 2026-09-30
Eddie Espinoza
Green
Chris Royal
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
The polling average stands at Gonzalez +6.2 across 1 poll testing Vicente Gonzalez against Eric Flores.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | Jul 27–Jul 30 | 700 LV | Gonzalez +3.0 | Gonzalez +6.2 | 0.33 |
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Gonzalez 96, Flores 4.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Gonzalez +6.2 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+3.0 | roughly 6 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Gonzalez +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Gonzalez +7.6 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Gonzalez +6.9 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Vicente Gonzalez 87 in 100 (Likely D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Vicente Gonzalez 96 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Vicente Gonzalez 96 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #72 of 421