Kathy Castor wins in 85 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Kathy Castor +5.9.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Castor +5.8; 80 in 100 fall between Beltran +1.4 and Castor +13.1.
Mike Beltran is an American attorney and politician who served in the Florida House of Representatives, representing the 70th district, which includes part of Hillsborough County. He is the Republican nominee in the 2026 election in Florida's 14th congressional district. Wikipedia
Katherine Anne Castor is an American politician and lawyer serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 14th congressional district since 2007. The district, based in Tampa, was numbered as the 11th district from 2007 to 2013. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Kathy Castor against Mike Beltran yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Castor 85, Beltran 15.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+4.0 | roughly 8 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Castor +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Castor +5.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Castor +5.9 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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