Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 85 in 100 that it changes hands.
Cait Conley wins in 85 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Cait Conley +2.3 across 3 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Cait Conley +6.1. Polls get 62% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Conley +3.7; 80 in 100 fall between Lawler +1.0 and Conley +8.5.
Caitlin Conley is an American politician and national security official. She is the Democratic nominee for the U.S. House of Representatives for New York's 17th district in the 2026 election, challenging incumbent Republican Mike Lawler. Wikipedia
Michael Vincent Lawler is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for New York's 17th congressional district since 2023. The district includes all of Rockland County and Putnam County, as well as most of Northern Westchester County, and portions of southern Dutchess County. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Conley +2.3 across 3 polls testing Cait Conley against Mike Lawler.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson CollegeA− for WPIX | Sep 27–Sep 29 | 400 LV | Conley +2.0 | Conley +2.6 | 0.77 |
| co/efficientB | Jul 20–Jul 22 | 1,292 LV | Lawler +5.0 | Conley +0.9 | 0.51 |
| FM3 ResearchD · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Jun 27–Jul 1 | 509 LV | Conley +6.0 | Conley +8.4 | 0.07 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Conley 85, Lawler 15.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 62% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Conley +2.3 | ±4.7 sampling range; effective 2.1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+1.0 | roughly 2 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Lawler +1.8 | In 2024 they ran 3.7 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Lawler +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Conley +6.1 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Conley +3.7 | ±3.5 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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