David Flippo wins in 85 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to David Flippo +5.8.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Flippo +5.7; 80 in 100 fall between Flippo +13.1 and Benitez-Thompson +1.5.
Teresa Francisca Benitez-Thompson is an American politician, social worker, and former Democratic member of the Nevada Assembly. First elected February 7, 2011 to represent District 27 in Washoe County, Benitez-Thompson served as Majority Leader of the Nevada Assembly during her tenure. Wikipedia
The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Nevada will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the four U.S. representatives from the state of Nevada, one from each of the state's congressional districts. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Teresa Benitez-Thompson against David Flippo yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Benitez-Thompson 16, Flippo 85.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+7.0 | roughly 14 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Flippo +5.8 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Flippo +5.8 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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