Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 84 in 100 that it changes hands.
Janelle Stelson wins in 84 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Janelle Stelson +2.9 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Janelle Stelson +4.9. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Stelson +3.9; 80 in 100 fall between Perry +1.1 and Stelson +8.8.
Scott Gordon Perry is an American politician and retired Army National Guard brigadier general who is the U.S. representative for Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district, serving since 2013. Wikipedia
Janelle Stelson is an American former television news anchor and politician. She worked as a television journalist in Pennsylvania for more than three decades, including 26 years as an anchor at WGAL-TV in Lancaster. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Stelson +2.9 across 1 poll testing Janelle Stelson against Scott Perry.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin & Marshall CollegeB− | Sep 9–Sep 20 | 390 RV | Stelson +3.0 | Stelson +2.9 | 0.35 |
| Public Policy PollingA− · DEM sponsor for Republicans Against Perry | Nov 18–Nov 19 | 549 RV | Stelson +4.0 | Stelson +7.6 | 0.00 |
| Public Policy PollingA− · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Jul 10–Jul 11 | 559 A | Stelson +3.0 | Stelson +7.9 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Stelson 84, Perry 16.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Stelson +2.9 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+3.0 | roughly 6 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Stelson +4.6 | In 2024 they ran 9.2 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Perry +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Stelson +4.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Stelson +3.9 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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