Brandon Herrera wins in 84 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Brandon Herrera +5.6.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Herrera +5.6; 80 in 100 fall between Herrera +12.9 and Stout +1.7.
Brandon Joseph Herrera, also known as The AK Guy, is an American YouTuber, firearms manufacturer, and political candidate. He gained prominence through his YouTube channel, launched in 2014, which features firearms testing, historical weapon demonstrations, and commentary on gun policy and politics. Wikipedia
The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the thirty-eight U.S. representatives from the state of Texas, one from each of the state's thirty-eight congressional districts. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at — across 0 polls testing Katy Padilla Stout against Brandon Herrera.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy PollingA− · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Mar 10–Mar 11 | 521 A | Herrera +2.0 | Stout +0.5 | 0.00 |
| Public Policy PollingA− · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Mar 10–Mar 11 | 521 RV | Herrera +2.0 | Stout +1.5 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Stout 16, Herrera 84.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+7.0 | roughly 14 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Herrera +5.6 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Herrera +5.6 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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