Zack Mullock
Democratic
Raised$824K
Cash on hand$117K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All New Jersey races
New Jersey District 2
Likely R
Zack Mullock
Democratic
17 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Jeff Van Drew
Republican · incumbent
83 in 100
Jeff Van Drew wins in 83 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jeff Van Drew +5.3.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Drew +5.3; 80 in 100 fall between Drew +12.6 and Mullock +1.9.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Jeff Van DrewIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1953)
Jefferson H. Van Drew is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for New Jersey's 2nd congressional district since 2019. He was first elected as a Democrat and later switched to the Republican Party in 2020. Wikipedia
Official website ↗Ramon Mora Jr.
Independent
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Zack Mullock against Jeff Van Drew yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Mullock 17, Drew 83.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+5.0 | roughly 10 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Drew +1.3 | In 2024 they ran 2.6 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Drew +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Drew +5.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Drew +5.3 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Zack Mullock 17 in 100 (Likely R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Zack Mullock 17 in 100 (Likely R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Zack Mullock 17 in 100 (Likely R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #35 of 421