Republicans hold this seat today (the sitting member’s party; the lines are new); Democrats are favored: 83 in 100 that it changes hands.
Bobby Pulido wins in 83 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Bobby Pulido +10.6 across 2 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Monica De La Cruz +8.0. Polls get 61% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Pulido +3.4; 80 in 100 fall between Cruz +1.3 and Pulido +8.1.
Mónica de la Cruz is an American politician and insurance agent serving as the U.S. representative for Texas's 15th congressional district since 2023. She is a member of the Republican Party. Wikipedia
Official website ↗José Roberto Pulido Jr. is an American singer, songwriter, guitarist, actor, and political candidate. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Pulido +10.6 across 2 polls testing Bobby Pulido against Monica De La Cruz.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington, Petts & AssociatesB− · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Sep 24–Sep 28 | 400 LV | Pulido +13.0 | Pulido +13.4 | 0.28 |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | Jul 27–Jul 30 | 700 LV | Pulido +5.0 | Pulido +8.2 | 0.33 |
| Applecart · DEM sponsor for WelcomePAC | May 18–May 25 | 802 LV | Pulido +2.0 | Pulido +3.6 | 0.00 |
| Public Policy PollingA− · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Sep 10–Sep 11 | 533 LV | Cruz +3.0 | Pulido +1.7 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Pulido 83, Cruz 17.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 61% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Pulido +10.6 | ±4.9 sampling range; effective 2 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+7.0 | roughly 14 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Cruz +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Cruz +8.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Pulido +3.4 | ±3.5 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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