Leela Gray
Democratic
Raised$2.6M
Cash on hand$601K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Florida races
Florida District 13
Likely R
Leela Gray
Democratic
17 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Anna Paulina Luna
Republican · incumbent
83 in 100
Anna Paulina Luna wins in 83 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Anna Paulina Luna +1.8 across 2 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Anna Paulina Luna +6.0. Polls get 57% of the weight 15 days out.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Luna +3.6; 80 in 100 fall between Luna +8.7 and Gray +1.4.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Anna Paulina LunaIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1989)
Anna Paulina Luna is an American politician and Air Force veteran serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 13th congressional district since 2023. A member of the Republican Party, she is the first Mexican-American woman elected to Congress from Florida. Wikipedia
Official website ↗Tony D'Arrigo
Independent
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
The polling average stands at Luna +1.8 across 2 polls testing Leela Gray against Anna Paulina Luna.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research AssociatesB+ · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Aug 25–Aug 27 | 500 LV | Gray +1.0 | Gray +3.0 | 0.26 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesB | Jul 21–Jul 22 | 400 LV | Luna +8.0 | Luna +6.2 | 0.29 |
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Gray 18, Luna 83.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 57% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Luna +1.8 | ±6.4 sampling range; effective 2 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+6.0 | roughly 12 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Luna +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Luna +6.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Luna +3.6 | ±3.8 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Leela Gray 36 in 100 (Lean R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Leela Gray 17 in 100 (Likely R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Leela Gray 17 in 100 (Likely R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #33 of 421