Sydney Gruters
Republican
Raised$1.6M
Cash on hand$616K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · open seat · All Florida races
Florida District 16
Likely R
Kelly Kirschner
Democratic
18 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Sydney Gruters
Republican
82 in 100
Sydney Gruters wins in 82 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Sydney Gruters +4.0 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Sydney Gruters +3.2. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Gruters +3.6; 80 in 100 fall between Gruters +8.7 and Kirschner +1.4.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Kelly Kirschner
Democratic
Raised$752K
Cash on hand$353K
Through 2026-09-30
Mark Davis
Independent
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
The polling average stands at Gruters +4.0 across 1 poll testing Kelly Kirschner against Sydney Gruters.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy PollingA− · DEM sponsor | Oct 1–Oct 2 | 530 RV | Gruters +4.0 | Gruters +4.0 | 0.28 |
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Kirschner 18, Gruters 82.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Gruters +4.0 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+6.0 | roughly 12 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Gruters +3.2 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Gruters +3.6 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Kelly Kirschner 23 in 100 (Likely R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Kelly Kirschner 18 in 100 (Likely R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Kelly Kirschner 18 in 100 (Likely R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent retiring
House races, closest first · this is #32 of 421