Michael Baumgartner wins in 82 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Michael Baumgartner +5.2.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Baumgartner +5.1; 80 in 100 fall between Baumgartner +12.4 and Conroy +2.2.
Michael James Baumgartner is an American politician and former diplomat serving as the U.S. representative from Washington's 5th congressional district since 2025. Wikipedia
Carmela Conroy is an American diplomat, politician, and former career Foreign Service officer who served as the U.S. consul general in Lahore, Pakistan, during the 2011 Raymond Davis incident, a diplomatic crisis between the United States and Pakistan. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Carmela Conroy against Michael Baumgartner yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Conroy 18, Baumgartner 82.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+5.0 | roughly 10 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Baumgartner +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Baumgartner +5.2 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Baumgartner +5.2 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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