Jeff Hurd wins in 82 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jeff Hurd +5.1.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Hurd +5.1; 80 in 100 fall between Hurd +12.3 and Romero +2.2.
Jeffrey Stephen Hurd is an American politician and lawyer from Colorado. A member of the Republican Party, he represents Colorado's 3rd congressional district in the United States House of Representatives. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
No public polls have tested Dwayne Romero against Jeff Hurd yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Romero 18, Hurd 82.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+5.0 | roughly 10 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Hurd +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Hurd +5.1 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Hurd +5.1 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
House races, closest first · this is #30 of 421