María Elvira Salazar wins in 80 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has María Elvira Salazar +0.1 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to María Elvira Salazar +6.6. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Salazar +3.3; 80 in 100 fall between Salazar +8.3 and Rodriguez +1.7.
Eliott Rodriguez is an American journalist, former television news anchor, and political candidate. The son of Cuban immigrants, Rodriguez was in journalism for almost five decades including 25 years at CBS News Miami. He won three Emmy Awards, four Edward R. Wikipedia
María Elvira Salazar is an American journalist, author, and politician serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 27th congressional district since 2021. She is a Republican assistant whip. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Salazar +0.1 across 1 poll testing Eliott Rodriguez against María Elvira Salazar.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin ResearchB · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Sep 8–Sep 13 | 600 LV | Salazar +1.0 | Salazar +0.1 | 0.24 |
| Blueprint PollingA · DEM sponsor | Mar 6–Mar 8 | 451 RV | Salazar +3.0 | Rodriguez +0.6 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Rodriguez 20, Salazar 80.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Salazar +0.1 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+6.0 | roughly 12 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Salazar +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Salazar +6.6 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Salazar +3.3 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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