Rebecca Bennett
Democratic
Raised$8.2M
Cash on hand$1.7M
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All New Jersey races
New Jersey District 7
Likely DLikely flip · R → D
Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 85 in 100 that it changes hands.
Rebecca Bennett
Democratic
85 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Thomas Kean Jr.
Republican · incumbent
15 in 100
Rebecca Bennett wins in 85 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Rebecca Bennett +6.0.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Bennett +5.9; 80 in 100 fall between Kean +1.4 and Bennett +13.2.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Thomas Kean Jr.Incumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1968)
Thomas Howard Kean Jr. is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for New Jersey's 7th congressional district since 2023. Wikipedia
Raised$5.9M
Cash on hand$2.3M
Through 2026-09-30
Seamus O'Toole
Independent
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
The polling average stands at — across 0 polls testing Rebecca Bennett against Thomas Kean Jr..
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z to A Research · DEM sponsor for 314 Action | May 24–May 26 | 430 LV | Bennett +4.0 | Bennett +5.9 | 0.00 |
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Bennett 85, Kean 15.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | Even | roughly 0 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Kean +0.4 | In 2024 they ran 0.8 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Kean +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Bennett +6.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Bennett +6.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Rebecca Bennett 85 in 100 (Likely D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Rebecca Bennett 85 in 100 (Likely D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Rebecca Bennett 85 in 100 (Likely D)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #41 of 421