Nick Begich III wins in 86 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Nick Begich III +6.0.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Begich +6.1; 80 in 100 fall between Begich +13.3 and Hafner +1.3.
Nicholas Joseph Begich III is an American politician and businessman who has served as the U.S. representative for Alaska's at-large congressional district since 2025. A member of the Republican Party, he had previously run for the seat in the 2022 special and regular elections before his election in 2024. Wikipedia
Carol Hafner and her son, Eric G. Hafner, are American political activists and perennial candidates, a mother and son known for running in United States House of Representatives elections in states of which they are not residents or have never visited. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Eric Hafner against Nick Begich III yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Hafner 14, Begich 86.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+6.0 | roughly 12 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Begich +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Begich +6.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Begich +6.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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