Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 86 in 100 that it changes hands.
Elaine Luria wins in 86 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Elaine Luria +2.0 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Elaine Luria +6.4. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Luria +4.1; 80 in 100 fall between Kiggans +0.9 and Luria +9.1.
Jennifer Ann Kiggans is an American politician, former United States Navy helicopter pilot, and geriatric nurse practitioner serving as the U.S. representative for Virginia's 2nd congressional district since 2023. A member of the Republican Party, she previously served in the Virginia Senate from 2020 to 2022. Wikipedia
Elaine Goodman Luria is an American politician and US Navy veteran who served as the U.S. representative from Virginia's 2nd congressional district from 2019 to 2023. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
The polling average stands at Luria +2.0 across 1 poll testing Elaine Luria against Jen Kiggans.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin ResearchB · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Jul 9–Jul 13 | 700 LV | Luria +0.0 | Luria +2.0 | 0.17 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Luria 86, Kiggans 14.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Luria +2.0 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | Even | roughly 0 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Luria +0.4 | In 2024 they ran 0.9 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Kiggans +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Luria +6.4 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Luria +4.1 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
House races, closest first · this is #43 of 421