Jenny Costa Honeycutt
Republican
Raised$1.2M
Cash on hand$686K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · open seat · All South Carolina races
South Carolina District 1
Lean RCould flip · R → D
Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats have a real chance: 26 in 100 that it changes hands.
Nancy Lacore
Democratic
26 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Jenny Costa Honeycutt
Republican
74 in 100
Jenny Costa Honeycutt wins in 74 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Jenny Costa Honeycutt +4.0 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jenny Costa Honeycutt +1.0. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Honeycutt +2.6; 80 in 100 fall between Honeycutt +7.5 and Lacore +2.4.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Nancy Lacore
Democratic · U.S. Navy vice admiral and political candidate
Nancy S. Lacore is a retired United States Navy officer and political candidate who served as the 16th Chief of Navy Reserve from 2024 to 2025. A vice admiral, she previously served as the 93rd commandant of Naval District Washington from 2022 to 2024. Wikipedia
Raised$4.4M
Cash on hand$553K
Through 2026-09-30
Bill Reeside
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
The polling average stands at Honeycutt +4.0 across 1 poll testing Nancy Lacore against Jenny Costa Honeycutt.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQRB− · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Jul 15–Jul 22 | 400 LV | Honeycutt +2.0 | Honeycutt +4.0 | 0.13 |
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Lacore 26, Honeycutt 74.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Honeycutt +4.0 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+6.0 | roughly 12 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Honeycutt +0.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Honeycutt +2.5 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Nancy Lacore 23 in 100 (Likely R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Nancy Lacore 26 in 100 (Lean R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Nancy Lacore 26 in 100 (Lean R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent retiring to run for governor
House races, closest first · this is #23 of 421