Casey Askar
Republican
Raised$5.0M
Cash on hand$90K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Florida races
Florida District 22
Likely D
Pia Dandiya
Democratic
76 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Casey Askar
Republican
24 in 100
Pia Dandiya wins in 76 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Pia Dandiya +4.0 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Pia Dandiya +1.4. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Dandiya +2.7; 80 in 100 fall between Askar +2.3 and Dandiya +7.7.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Pia Dandiya
Democratic
Raised$3.9M
Cash on hand$1.1M
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
The polling average stands at Dandiya +4.0 across 1 poll testing Pia Dandiya against Casey Askar.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research | Aug 10–Aug 12 | 551 LV | Dandiya +0.0 | Dandiya +4.0 | 0.35 |
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Dandiya 76, Askar 24.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Dandiya +4.0 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+4.0 | roughly 8 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Dandiya +1.4 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Dandiya +2.7 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Pia Dandiya 77 in 100 (Likely D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Pia Dandiya 76 in 100 (Likely D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Pia Dandiya 76 in 100 (Likely D)
Rules and notes
- New representative to be elected
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