Mike Bouchard Jr.
Republican
Raised$2.6M
Cash on hand$1.4M
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · open seat · All Michigan races
Michigan District 10
Likely DLikely flip · R → D
Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 77 in 100 that it changes hands.
Christina Hines
Democratic
77 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Mike Bouchard Jr.
Republican
23 in 100
Christina Hines wins in 77 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Christina Hines +1.8 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Christina Hines +4.0. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Hines +2.8; 80 in 100 fall between Bouchard +2.1 and Hines +7.8.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Christina Hines
Democratic
Raised$3.5M
Cash on hand$1.4M
Through 2026-09-30
Andrea L. Kirby
Working Class
Kwabena Nkromo
Green
Mike Saliba
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
The polling average stands at Hines +1.8 across 1 poll testing Christina Hines against Mike Bouchard Jr..
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy GroupB+ · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Aug 10–Aug 13 | 600 LV | Hines +0.0 | Hines +1.8 | 0.23 |
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Hines 77, Bouchard 23.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Hines +1.8 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+3.0 | roughly 6 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Hines +4.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Hines +2.8 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Christina Hines 63 in 100 (Lean D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Christina Hines 77 in 100 (Likely D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Christina Hines 77 in 100 (Likely D)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent retiring to run for governor
House races, closest first · this is #25 of 421