Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 77 in 100 that it changes hands.
Lindsay James wins in 77 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Lindsay James +3.8 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Lindsay James +1.9. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin James +2.9; 80 in 100 fall between Mitchell +2.1 and James +7.9.
Lindsay James is an American politician and Presbyterian minister serving as a member of the Iowa House of Representatives from the 71st district since 2019. A member of the Democratic Party, she represents part of Dubuque County and serves as House minority whip. Wikipedia
Joseph Paul Mitchell is an American business owner and politician from the state of Iowa. He served in the Iowa House of Representatives from 2019 to 2023. Sworn in at the age of 21, Mitchell was the youngest person to ever be elected to the Iowa House. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at James +3.8 across 1 poll testing Lindsay James against Joe Mitchell.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy GroupB+ · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Jul 14–Jul 19 | — LV | James +1.0 | James +3.8 | 0.17 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: James 77, Mitchell 23.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | James +3.8 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+4.0 | roughly 8 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | James +1.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | James +2.9 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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