Eli Crane wins in 77 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Eli Crane +4.3.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Crane +4.3; 80 in 100 fall between Crane +11.5 and Nez +3.0.
Elijah James Crane is an American politician, businessman, and former United States Navy SEAL serving as the U.S. representative for Arizona's 2nd congressional district since 2023. He is a member of the Republican Party and the Freedom Caucus, the most conservative House Republican group. Wikipedia
Jonathan M. Nez is a Navajo politician who served as the 9th president of the Navajo Nation from 2019 to 2023. He previously served as vice president and as a Navajo Nation Council delegate. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Jonathan Nez against Eli Crane yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Nez 23, Crane 77.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+7.0 | roughly 14 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Nez +4.6 | In 2024 they ran 9.1 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Crane +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Crane +4.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Crane +4.3 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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