Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats have a real chance: 32 in 100 that it changes hands.
Brad Finstad wins in 68 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Jake Johnson +1.5 across 2 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Brad Finstad +6.2. Polls get 59% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Finstad +1.7; 80 in 100 fall between Finstad +6.4 and Johnson +3.0.
Bradley Howard Finstad is an American politician serving since 2022 as the U.S. representative for Minnesota's 1st congressional district. Finstad represents a section of southern Minnesota along the border with Iowa. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Johnson +1.5 across 2 polls testing Jake Johnson against Brad Finstad.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSAA− for KAAL-TV | Oct 4–Oct 9 | 565 LV | Johnson +2.0 | Johnson +1.8 | 0.86 |
| GBAO StrategiesB− · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Sep 18–Sep 21 | 500 LV | Johnson +1.0 | Johnson +0.5 | 0.21 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Johnson 32, Finstad 68.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 59% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Johnson +1.5 | ±5.7 sampling range; effective 1.5 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+6.0 | roughly 12 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Finstad +0.4 | In 2024 they ran 0.8 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Finstad +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Finstad +6.2 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Finstad +1.6 | ±3.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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