Kristina Knickerbocker
Democratic
Raised$883K
Cash on hand$303K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Ohio races
Ohio District 10
Lean RCould flip · R → D
Republicans hold this seat today (the sitting member’s party; the lines are new); Democrats have a real chance: 34 in 100 that it changes hands.
Kristina Knickerbocker
Democratic
34 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Mike Turner
Republican · incumbent
66 in 100
Mike Turner wins in 66 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Mike Turner +2.4.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Turner +2.4; 80 in 100 fall between Turner +9.7 and Knickerbocker +4.9.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Mike TurnerIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1960)
Michael Ray Turner is an American politician serving in the U.S. House of Representatives since 2003. Since 2013, he has represented Ohio's 10th congressional district. Before serving in Congress, Turner served as mayor of Dayton, Ohio from 1994 to 2002. He is a member of the Republican Party. Wikipedia
Raised$1.2M
Cash on hand$588K
Through 2026-09-30
Thomas McMasters
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Kristina Knickerbocker against Mike Turner yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Knickerbocker 34, Turner 66.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+4.0 | roughly 8 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Turner +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Turner +2.4 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Turner +2.4 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Kristina Knickerbocker 34 in 100 (Lean R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Kristina Knickerbocker 34 in 100 (Lean R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Kristina Knickerbocker 34 in 100 (Lean R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #16 of 421