Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 65 in 100 that it changes hands.
Shannon Taylor wins in 65 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Shannon Taylor +4.2 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Rob Wittman +1.4. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Taylor +1.5; 80 in 100 fall between Wittman +3.5 and Taylor +6.5.
Shannon Leigh Taylor is an American attorney and prosecutor who has served as the commonwealth's attorney for Henrico County, Virginia since 2012. Taylor is the Democratic nominee for Virginia's 1st congressional district in the 2026 election. Wikipedia
Robert Joseph Wittman is an American politician and environmental health specialist serving as the U.S. representative for Virginia's 1st congressional district since 2007. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Taylor +4.3 across 1 poll testing Shannon Taylor against Rob Wittman.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and GovernmentA+ | Sep 23–Sep 28 | 609 LV | Taylor +4.0 | Taylor +4.2 | 0.71 |
| Public Policy PollingA− · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Aug 8–Aug 9 | 541 RV | Wittman +1.0 | Taylor +4.1 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Taylor 65, Wittman 35.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Taylor +4.3 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+3.0 | roughly 6 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Wittman +1.2 | In 2024 they ran 2.4 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Wittman +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Wittman +1.4 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Taylor +1.5 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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