Dan Green
Republican
Raised$2.2M
Cash on hand$516K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Florida races
Florida District 9
Lean RLikely flip · D → R
Democrats hold this seat today (the sitting member’s party; the lines are new); Republicans are favored: 65 in 100 that it changes hands.
Darren Soto
Democratic · incumbent
35 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Dan Green
Republican
65 in 100
Dan Green wins in 65 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Dan Green +2.2.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Green +2.2; 80 in 100 fall between Green +9.5 and Soto +5.1.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Darren SotoIncumbent
Democratic · American attorney & politician (born 1978)
Darren Michael Soto is an American attorney and politician serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 9th congressional district since 2017. Wikipedia
Raised$3.5M
Cash on hand$1.3M
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Darren Soto against Dan Green yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Soto 35, Green 65.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+8.0 | roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Soto +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Green +2.2 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Green +2.2 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Darren Soto 35 in 100 (Lean R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Darren Soto 35 in 100 (Lean R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Darren Soto 35 in 100 (Lean R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #14 of 421