Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 65 in 100 that it changes hands.
Paige Cognetti wins in 65 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Paige Cognetti +4.5 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Rob Bresnahan +1.9. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Cognetti +1.4; 80 in 100 fall between Bresnahan +3.5 and Cognetti +6.4.
Robert Paul Bresnahan Jr. is an American politician and businessman serving as the United States representative for Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district since 2025. He is a member of the Republican Party. Wikipedia
Paige Cognetti is an American politician serving since 2020 as mayor of Scranton, Pennsylvania. She is the first woman to be mayor of the city and won her seat in a special election. A member of the Democratic Party, she ran her first Scranton mayoral campaign as an independent. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Cognetti +4.5 across 1 poll testing Paige Cognetti against Rob Bresnahan.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research PartnersC · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Jun 18–Jun 23 | 400 LV | Cognetti +2.0 | Cognetti +4.5 | 0.06 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Cognetti 65, Bresnahan 35.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Cognetti +4.5 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+4.0 | roughly 8 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Bresnahan +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Bresnahan +1.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Cognetti +1.4 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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