Jamie Ager
Democratic
Raised$5.4M
Cash on hand$1.6M
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All North Carolina races
North Carolina District 11
Lean DLikely flip · R → D
Republicans hold this seat today (the sitting member’s party; the lines are new); Democrats are favored: 64 in 100 that it changes hands.
Jamie Ager
Democratic
64 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Jennifer Balkcom
Republican
36 in 100
Jamie Ager wins in 64 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jamie Ager +2.1.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Ager +2.1; 80 in 100 fall between Balkcom +5.2 and Ager +9.4.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Jennifer Balkcom
Republican · American politician
Jennifer Capps Balkcom is an American politician serving as a member of the North Carolina House of Representatives for the 117th district since 2023. She is the Republican nominee for North Carolina's 11th congressional district in 2026. Wikipedia
Raised$355K
Cash on hand$295K
Through 2026-09-30
Travis Groo
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Jamie Ager against Jennifer Balkcom yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Ager 64, Balkcom 36.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+5.0 | roughly 10 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Ager +2.1 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Ager +2.1 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Jamie Ager 64 in 100 (Lean D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Jamie Ager 64 in 100 (Lean D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Jamie Ager 64 in 100 (Lean D)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated but withdrew
House races, closest first · this is #12 of 421