Carlos De La Cruz
Republican
U.S. House · All Texas races
Texas District 35
Lean D
Johnny Garcia
Democratic
64 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Carlos De La Cruz
Republican
36 in 100
Johnny Garcia wins in 64 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Johnny Garcia +1.2 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Johnny Garcia +1.6. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Garcia +1.4; 80 in 100 fall between Cruz +3.5 and Garcia +6.4.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Johnny Garcia
Democratic
Raised$1.9M
Cash on hand$510K
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
The polling average stands at Garcia +1.2 across 1 poll testing Johnny Garcia against Carlos De La Cruz.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington, Petts & AssociatesB− · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Aug 27–Aug 31 | 500 LV | Cruz +1.0 | Garcia +1.2 | 0.21 |
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Garcia 64, Cruz 36.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Garcia +1.2 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+4.0 | roughly 8 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Garcia +1.6 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Garcia +1.4 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Johnny Garcia 59 in 100 (Toss-up)
- Polls + fundamentals: Johnny Garcia 64 in 100 (Lean D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Johnny Garcia 64 in 100 (Lean D)
Rules and notes
- New representative to be elected
House races, closest first · this is #11 of 421