Republicans hold this seat today (the sitting member’s party; the lines are new); Democrats have a real chance: 36 in 100 that it changes hands.
Ann Wagner wins in 64 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Fred Wellman +0.0 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Ann Wagner +2.8. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Wagner +1.4; 80 in 100 fall between Wagner +6.3 and Wellman +3.6.
Ann Louise Wagner is an American politician and former diplomat serving as the U.S. representative for Missouri's 2nd congressional district since 2013. A member of the Republican Party, she was the United States ambassador to Luxembourg from 2005 to 2009. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Wellman +0.0 across 1 poll testing Fred Wellman against Ann Wagner.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research GroupB+ | Sep 14–Sep 15 | 565 LV | Wagner +1.0 | Wellman +0.0 | 0.53 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Wellman 36, Wagner 64.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Wellman +0.0 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+4.0 | roughly 8 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Wagner +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Wagner +2.8 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Wagner +1.4 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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